Since the beginning of this year, there have been frequent outbreaks of COVID-19 in China, and the epidemic prevention and control situation in some regions has been grim, leading to a marked economic downturn in the Yangtze River Delta and northeast China. Under the influence of multiple factors such as repeated epidemic, shrinking demand and slow global economic recovery, the pressure on China’s economy has increased sharply, and the traditional consumption sector has been greatly impacted. In terms of aluminum consumption, real estate, the largest terminal consumption sector of aluminum, showed a downward trend, mainly because the epidemic control and control greatly affected the progress of the project. By The end of May, the country had issued more than 270 supporting policies for real estate in 2022, but the effect of the new policies was not obvious. It is expected that there will be no increase in the real estate sector within this year, which will drag down aluminum consumption.
With the decline of traditional consumption areas, the focus of the market has gradually shifted to new infrastructure areas, among which 5G infrastructure, uHV, intercity high-speed railway and rail transit, and new energy vehicle charging piles are important areas of aluminum consumption. Its large-scale investment construction may drive aluminum consumption recovery.
In terms of base stations, according to the telecommunication Industry Statistics Bulletin 2021 issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, a total of 1.425 million 5G base stations have been built and opened in China by 2021, and 654,000 new base stations have been added, nearly doubling the number of 5G base stations per 10,000 people compared with 2020. Since this year, all regions have responded to the construction of 5G base stations, among which Yunnan Province proposed to build 20,000 5G base stations this year. Suzhou plans to build 37,000; Henan province proposed 40,000. As of March 2022, the number of 5G base stations in China reached 1.559 million. According to the plan of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the number of 5G base stations is expected to reach 26 per 10,000 people, that is, by 2025, China’s 5G base stations will reach 3.67 million. Based on the compound growth rate of 27% from 2021 to 2025, it is estimated that the number of 5G base stations will be increased by 380,000, 480,000, 610,000 and 770,000 stations respectively from 2022 to 2025.
Considering that aluminum demand for 5G construction is mainly concentrated in base stations, accounting for about 90%, while aluminum demand for 5G base stations is concentrated in photovoltaic inverters, 5G antennas, HEAT dissipation materials of 5G base stations and thermal transmission, etc., according to Aladdin research data, about 40kg/ station consumption, that is, the expected increase of 5G base stations in 2022 can drive aluminum consumption of 15,200 tons. It will drive 30,800 tons of aluminum consumption by 2025.
Post time: May-31-2022
